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                HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK
                Canada Edition



C a n a d a M o r t g a g e a n d H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n
                                                                                                                    Table of Contents
Date Released: Second Quarter 2015                                                                              2   National Outlook
Housing starts will moderate slightly in                                                                        3   Provincial Summary
2015 and 2016                                                                                                   4   Risks to the Outlook

                                                                                                                6   Trends at a Glance
Overview1
                                                                                                                7   Provincial Housing Outlooks
This report provides a revised outlook                   494,500 units in 2015 and 424,500 to
reflecting the evolution of risks since the              491,300 units in 2016.                                17 Canada Starts
first quarter of 2015.While the decline in               Resale Prices:
oil prices appears to have reached a floor,                                                                    18 Forecast Tables

the full impact of declining oil prices and              The average MLS® price is forecast to
continued low interest rates on economic                 be between $402,139 and $439,589 in
and housing activity remains uncertain.                  2015. In 2016, the average MLS® price is
To reflect the uncertainty from various                  expected to be between $398,191 and
risks to the outlook, CMHC presents its                  $457,200.The point forecasts call for a
forecast in the form of a range.The lower                3.4 per cent gain in 2015 and a further                     Housing Starts:
and upper ends of this range reflect the                 per cent gain in 2016.                                   2015: 166,540-188,580
downside and upside risks to the outlook,                Provincial Spotlight:                                        2016: 162,840-190,830
respectively.                                            In 2015, housing starts activity is
Under the base case range, housing starts                expected to slow in oil-producing                           Resales:
are expected to decline by 4.1 per cent                  regions, particularly Alberta, as a result of                2015: 437,100-494,500
in 2015 relative to 2014; Multiple Listing               weakening economic conditions due to                         2016: 424,500-491,300
Service® (MLS®)2 sales are expected to                   the decline in world oil prices. However,
decline 1.1 per cent, and the MLS® average               these declines are expected to be partly
price is expected to increase by 3.4 per                 offset by increasing starts activity in other
cent.                                                    regions, particularly Ontario, where the
                                                         economy stands to benefit from falling oil          SUBSCRIBE NOW!
Housing Starts:                                          prices, lower interest rates, and a lower
On an annual basis, housing starts are                   Canada/U.S. exchange rate.                            Access CMHC's Market Analysis
                                                                                                               Centre publications quickly and
expected to range between 166,540 and
                                                         In 2016, housing starts will decrease                 conveniently on the Order Desk at
188,580 units in 2015 and from 162,840                                                                         www.cmhc.ca/housingmarketinformation.
                                                         marginally in most provinces, while
to 190,830 units in 2016.                                                                                      View, print, download or subscribe
                                                         Quebec and British Columbia will witness              to get market information e-mailed
Resales:                                                 rising starts. Improving employment                   to you on the day it is released.
                                                                                                               CMHC's electronic suite of national
Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) sales are               trends in Quebec and above-average                    standardized products is available
expected to range between 437,100 and                    economic growth in British Columbia will              for free.


1 The outlook is subject to uncertainty.Although point forecasts are presented in this publication, CMHC
  also presents forecast ranges and risks where appropriate.The forecasts included in this document reflect
  information available as of April 20, 2015.
2 Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) is a registered trademark owned by the Canadian Real Estate Association.




                                                    Housing market intelligence you can count on

                                                                 Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Second Quarter 2015


support increased starts activity in these               Taking these factors into consideration,                 Multi-unit starts are expected
provinces.                                               housing starts are expected to                           to be stable
Detailed National                                        moderate over the forecast horizon.                      In the first quarter of 2015, multi-
                                                         Our assessment is that there is more                     unit4 starts increased 1.4 per cent
Housing Outlook                                          downside risk than upside risk to our                    compared to the fourth quarter of
                                                         forecast. As a result, the lower end of                  2014, based on seasonally adjusted
                                                         the forecast range is wider than the
Starts to moderate                                                                                                at an annualized rate data. Overall,
                                                         top of the range.The housing starts                      multi-unit starts in 2015 and 2016 are
Housing starts are forecast to                           forecast range for 2015 is 166,540 to                    expected to moderate slightly from
moderate relative to 2014, due to a                      188,580 units and 162,840 to 190,830                     current, historically high levels. This
number of factors.To reflect potential                   units for 2016.                                          will reflect several mutually offsetting
risks to the outlook, CMHC produces                                                                               factors.
a range of forecasts which tends                         Single-detached starts to drive
to widen as the forecast horizon                         overall moderation                                       Some local markets are experiencing
lengthens due to greater uncertainty.                                                                             modest supply and demand imbalances,
                                                         In the first quarter of 2015, single-                    with the number of completed and
First, total completed and unabsorbed                    detached starts decreased 13.5 per                       unabsorbed units in the first quarter of
units have trended upward since                          cent compared to the fourth quarter                      2015 standing at 3.5 units per 10,000
the early 2000s, driven by the multi-                    of 2014, based on seasonally adjusted                    population, above the historical average
unit segment.The inventory3 of total                     at an annualized rate data. By the end                   of 2.7 units.Above-average inventory
completed and unabsorbed dwellings                       of the forecast horizon, total single-                   levels are expected to exert a modestly
per 10,000 population was 4.9 units                      detached starts are expected to                          restraining influence on multi-unit
in the first quarter of 2015, above the                  increase relative to the first quarter                   starts, in order to facilitate inventory
historical average of 4.4 units. Among                   of 2015 but remain below levels                          absorption.
other factors, inventory management                      observed in 2014 as homebuyers
by builders is expected to modestly                      respond to house price growth by                         Demographic5 trends are also expected
restrain the pace of new home                            shifting demand away from higher-                        to put downward pressure on multi-
construction over the forecast horizon.                  priced new single-detached homes                         unit housing demand.As mentioned
                                                         towards lower-priced alternatives                        in previous editions of the Housing
                                                                                                                  Market Outlook, Statistics Canada
Second, the growth of house prices,                      such as new multi-unit dwellings and
                                                                                                                  projections indicate that the growth
particularly in major CMAs such as                       existing homes.
                                                                                                                  rate of the Canadian population aged
Toronto andVancouver, is expected                                                                                 25-34 is expected to slow. Our analysis
to partly offset improvements                            As a result, single-detached starts                      has shown that the population aged
in affordability from growth in                          are forecast to decline in both 2015                     25-34 represents a large share of the
employment and earnings.                                 and 2016. Reflecting the risks to the                    first-time home buyers segment that
                                                         outlook, single-detached starts are                      traditionally enters homeownership

However, mortgage rates are expected                     expected to range between 65,900                         through the lower priced multi-unit
                                                                                                                  housing segment.
to remain at or near current historic                    and 74,480 units for 2015 and
lows over the forecast horizon.This                      between 64,350 and 75,070 units in
                                                                                                                  Nevertheless, while the downward
will continue to support housing                         2016.
                                                                                                                  pressure on multi-unit starts from
demand.                                                                                                           supply imbalances and demographic


3The level of inventories discussed here is for urban centres with a population of 50,000 and over.The inventory of housing units is defined as a snapshot of the level
  of completed and unabsorbed units at a specific time. A dwelling is defined as being "absorbed" when a non-binding, non-conditional agreement is made to buy the
  dwelling. The definition of this concept was recently updated. Prior to 2013, a unit was defined as "absorbed" when an agreement was made to buy or rent the
  dwelling. However, data on absorption for multiple dwelling units intended for rent was not always available. Supply conditions in the owner and rental markets are
  now collected under separate, dedicated surveys (see CMHC's Rental Market Survey for rented accommodation and CMHC's Starts and Completions Survey for
  owned accommodation). In addition, the series' name was changed from "newly completed and unoccupied" to "newly completed and unabsorbed" as a result of the
  move toward counts based on the existence of a binding contract.

4Multi-unit housing starts include semi-detached, row and apartment units.

5Demographic forecasts are based on Statistics Canada's medium-growth population projection (CANSIM Table 052-0005). Statistics Canada derives alternative
  population projection scenarios from the official preliminary postcensal estimates of the population of Canada, provinces and territories as of July 1, 2013.


                                                                                                                 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation               2

                                                                 Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Second Quarter 2015


trends is expected to dominate in                         broadly in-line with key indicators                       sales in 2015 in Quebec and British
2015, these factors are expected to be                    such as employment, personal                              Columbia are expected to see
offset in 2016 by the shift in demand                     disposable income, mortgage rates                         the greatest growth, supported by
away from relatively more expensive                       and population growth.                                    improving economic conditions.This
new single-detached homes towards                                                                                   growth is expected to partially offset
less expensive dwelling options,                          The average MLS® price for Canada                         expected declines in sales activity in
including multi-units.                                    is expected to be between $402,139                        Alberta, Saskatchewan and the Atlantic
                                                          and $439,589 in 2015 and between                          provinces. In 2016, existing home
As a result, the profile of the outlook                   $398,191 and $457,200 in 2016.The                         sales will increase modestly in most
for multi-unit starts is expected to be                   slower rate of price growth in 2016                       provinces and decline in Ontario,
more stable than for single-detached                      compared to what was observed                             British Columbia and Prince Edward
starts. Overall, multi-unit starts in                     in 2014 (6.7 per cent) and what is                        Island.
2015 are expected to decline relative                     expected in 2015 is due in part to
to 2014. In 2016, multi-unit starts                       the expectation that the composition                      Average MLS® home prices in British
are expected to remain essentially                        of MLS® sales will see a reduction in                     Columbia and Ontario are expected
unchanged from the 2015 level. Multi-                     more expensive resale units and an                        to continue to outpace the national
unit housing starts are expected to                       increase in moderately priced resale                      average in 2015 and 2016 while
range between 100,630 and 114,330                         units.                                                    average prices in Alberta are expected
units in 2015 and between 98,510 and                                                                                to fall below the national average.
115,800 units in 2016.                                    Provincial Summary

MLS® sales are forecast to                                In 2015, housing starts activity is                       Trends Impacting
remain close to 2014 levels                               expected to slow in oil-producing
                                                          provinces, particularly in Alberta,                       Housing7
MLS® sales in 2015 and 2016 are                           as a result of weakening economic
expected to decline relative to levels                    conditions due to the decline in world                    Slowing growth in Gross
observed in 2014. By 2016, demand for                     oil prices. However, lower starts in oil-                 Domestic Product
existing units is expected to moderate                    producing regions are expected to be
                                                                                                                    Global economic growth is expected
slightly relative to 2014 and 2015, but                   partly offset by higher starts in other
                                                                                                                    to increase modestly in 2015 and
still remain above the average MLS®                       regions, particularly Ontario, where
                                                                                                                    2016, led by a strengthening U.S.
national sales level over the 2009 to                     economic trends should improve as
                                                                                                                    economy.While the fall in oil prices
2013 period.                                              exporters benefit from declining input
                                                          costs as a result of lower oil prices,                    has a net negative impact on the
                                                                                                                    Canadian economy, Canadian non-
MLS® sales are expected to be                             lower interest rates, and a lower
                                                                                                                    energy exports will benefit from an
between 437,100 and 494,500 units                         Canada/U.S. exchange rate.
                                                                                                                    improving U.S. outlook and a lower
in 2015 and between 424,500 and                                                                                     Canada/U.S. exchange rate, offsetting
491,300 units in 2016.                                    In 2016, housing starts will decrease
                                                          in most provinces, while Quebec                           some of the negative economic impact
                                                                                                                    on the energy sector. Based on the
Relatively balanced6 national                             and British Columbia will witness
                                                                                                                    average of private sector forecasts,
market conditions expected                                rising starts. Improving employment
                                                                                                                    GDP in Canada is forecast to grow
to continue over the forecast                             trends in Quebec and above-average
                                                                                                                    at 2.0 per cent in 2015 and 2.1 per
horizon                                                   GDP growth in British Columbia are
                                                          expected to support increased starts                      cent in 2016, below the growth rate in
Other than a modest amount of                             activity in the two provinces.                            2014 (2.3 per cent).
overvaluation at the national level,
housing market conditions are                             With respect to the regional outlook
expected to remain balanced and                           for the existing home market, MLS®


6Taking the Canadian MLS® market as a whole, a sales-to-new listings ratio below 40 per cent has historically accompanied prices that are rising at a rate less than
  inflation, a situation known as a buyer's market.A sales-to-new listings ratio above 55 per cent is associated with a seller's market. In a seller's market, home prices
  generally rise more rapidly than overall inflation.When the sales-to-new listings ratio is between these thresholds, the market is said to be balanced.

7CMHC`s economic assumptions are based on publicly available information and the average of private sector Canadian forecasters.


                                                                                                                 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation                  3

                                             Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Second Quarter 2015


Stable trends in employment            mortgage rate is expected to be in the     U.S. exchange rate which would
                                       2.30 to 3.50 per cent range, while the     improve export competitiveness and
The average of private sector          five-year rate is forecast to be within    the lowering of retail gasoline prices
forecasts predicts that the overall    the 4.00 to 5.50 per cent range. For       which would benefit households and
Canadian unemployment rate will        2016, the one-year mortgage rate is        businesses.
continue to trend lower. In 2015,      expected to be in the 2.40 to 4.00 per
the unemployment rate is forecast      cent range, while the five-year rate is
to fall to 6.8 per cent and further                                               However, the full impact of the
                                       forecast to be within the 4.20 to 6.20     decline in crude oil prices on the
to 6.6 per cent in 2016, compared      per cent range.                            Canadian economy remains unclear
to 6.9 per cent in 2014. In addition,                                             and depends on how much oil prices
hourly earnings are also forecast to                                              fall and how long they remain at a
grow modestly faster (2.4 per cent)   Risks to the Outlook                        lower level. If the net negative impact
than consumer prices (1.0 per cent)                                               of lower oil prices on the Canadian
in 2015.These trends will help to      While the outlook for the Canadian         economy is larger than anticipated,
support housing demand.                housing sector is one of general           further monetary policy easing may
                                       stability, there are global and domestic   be required to offset the negative
Household formation will               risks to consider that could result in     economic impact. CMHC's current
continue to support demand             added pressure on housing markets,         HMO forecast is based on the April
for new dwellings                      supply imbalances and the ability of       2015 Industry Consensus view of oil
                                       households to service their debt.          prices rebounding within a range of
CMHC's Potential Housing Demand                                                   $50-$60 per barrel (USD) in 2015.
(PHD) model uses historical            The future path of oil prices remains      Under this scenario, we expect a
demographic data to project the        the most significant domestic risk.        negative impact on housing markets
future pace of average annual          After a steady decline over the July       in oil-producing provinces, including
household formation, an indicator of   2014 to January 2015 period,West           Alberta, as some of the more costly
new housing demand. Using updated      Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil         oil sands projects get delayed.
demographic data, the PHD model        prices have stabilized.
estimates the average annual pace                                                 An additional downside risk related
of household formation at 193,000,     To date, lower oil prices have             to the fall in oil prices is that it
over the 2011 to 2016 period, which    negatively impacted the oil-producing      has the potential to exacerbate
is slightly higher than the forecast   economies of Saskatchewan,                 deflationary concerns in Japan and
of annual housing starts in 2015 and   Newfoundland and particularly              the European Union (EU).There is
2016.                                  Alberta. Housing demand has                also uncertainty regarding the ongoing
                                       slowed through adverse effects on          bailout negotiations between the
Mortgage rates are expected            employment, household incomes and          EU and Greece, as well as continued
to remain at or close to               migration as a result of the potential     geopolitical tensions in the Middle
current levels over the forecast       delay, downsizing or cancellation of       East and in Russia and the Ukraine.
horizon                                major energy projects.According            All of these factors have the potential
                                       to the Bank of Canada's April 2015         to weaken a global recovery and
Mortgage rates will continue to        Monetary Policy Report (MPR),              negatively impact Canadian economic
be supportive of housing demand.       investment in the oil and gas industry     growth.
Consistent with the view of Canadian   in Canada is expected to fall by thirty
economic forecasters, CMHC expects     per cent in 2015.
interest rates to remain at or very                                               An upside risk to our outlook is the
close to current levels over the                                                  potential for stronger-than-expected
                                       For Canada as a whole, the potential
forecast horizon.                                                                 growth in the U.S., since it would
                                       negative impact of declining oil prices    benefit Canadian exporters and likely
                                       on economic growth is expected to          drive greater-than-expected housing
According to CMHC's base case          be at least partly offset by continued     demand.
scenario for 2015, the one-year        low interest rates, a declining Canada/




                                                                               Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation   4

                                            Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Second Quarter 2015


Household debt-levels, despite having
stabilized, remain a key vulnerability to
the Canadian financial system. In the
event of a shock, if the unemployment
rate among Canadians rises materially,
many may need to access their wealth
to make ends meet for a period of
time. However, with household equity
being concentrated in a non-liquid
asset such as housing, such a shock
could be amplified by the need to sell,
resulting in a sudden glut of homes
for sale, putting downward pressure
on prices and eroding household
wealth. In other words, household
debt is a vulnerability that can amplify
an economic shock and therefore,
requires close monitoring.




                                                                              Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation   5

                                                               Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Second Quarter 2015


Trends at a Glance

Key factors and their effects on the housing sector


 Mortgage rates                Mortgage rates will remain low by historical standards and supportive of housing demand.

 Employment                    Based on the consensus among prominent Canadian forecasters, we expect that employment
                               will register growth in the range of 0.3 to 1.3 per cent in 2015 and 0.5 to 1.9 per cent in 2016.

 Income                        Income is expected to increase modestly as economic conditions in Canada improve. As a
                               result, income growth will remain supportive of housing demand over the forecast horizon.

 Net migration                 Canada's economy is expected to continue to attract a high level of immigrants. As a result, the
                               level of net migration will remain above its historical average and help support Canada's housing
                               market.

 Demographics8                 By the end of the forecast horizon, the growth rate of the Canadian population aged 25-34 is
                               projected to begin a longer-term decline, according to Statistics Canada's projections. This, along
                               with general population aging, will impact the type and tenure of housing demand.

 Resale market                 Overall market conditions remain relatively balanced and house prices, while showing modest
                               overvaluation, are generally in line with underlying demographic and economic factors at a
                               national level. Reflecting the risks to the outlook, the average MLS® price growth is expected to
                               range from -4.7 per cent to 4.1 per cent in 2015, widening to a range of -7.0 per cent to 6.7 per
                               cent in 2016.

 Stock of                      The stock of completed and unabsorbed housing units to population is above the historical
 completed and                 average, but has been declining since May 2013.
 unabsorbed
 units




8Demographic forecasts are based on Statistics Canada's medium-growth population projection (CANSIM Table 052-0005). Statistics Canada derives alternative
 population projection scenarios from the official preliminary postcensal estimates of the population of Canada, provinces and territories as of July 1, 2013.



                                                                                                              Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation            6

                                              Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Second Quarter 2015


Provincial Housing                      Figure 1
Outlooks                                                              British Columbia Starts (000s)
                                         35
British Columbia                                                                                                     Singles     Multiples
                                         30
                                         25
Overview                                 20
                                         15
The British Columbia economy is
forecast to expand in 2015 and 2016.     10

Population-driven demand for goods        5
and services will contribute to growth    0
in consumer spending. An expected                   2011             2012            2013             2014         2015(F)* 2016(F)*
pick up in the pace of US economic       Source: CMHC                                                                            (F): Forecast
growth, coupled with a lower-valued
Canadian dollar relative to the US
dollar, will grow BC exports. Low oil  *The point forecast for provincial total housing starts is 28,700 for 2015 and 29,000 for 2016. Economic
prices are expected to have a small    uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts, which varies from 26,400-29,800 units for 2015 and
positive impact on the BC economy,     26,100-30,500 units for 2016.

as consumers and businesses benefit    2016, with the broader range next                            Prices: Balanced resale market
from lower transportation costs, and   year reflecting increased downside                           conditions are expected to prevail
interest rates remain low and stable.  risk as mortgage rates rise. Builders                        in most housing markets within BC,

Projected population growth of         will respond to stronger demand                              pointing to moderate price gains.

just over one per cent per year is     for new homes this year and next,                            The average home price has been

expected to add to demand for          as rising prices for resale homes                            influenced by compositional changes

ownership and rental housing.While     attract more buyers to the new home                          during the past few years. In early

people moving to BC from other         market.                                                      2015, this is still the case as a rising

countries will be the main source of                                                                share of higher-priced home sales
                                       Multiple Starts: Multi-unit starts are
population growth, people moving                                                                    inVancouver and a rising share of
                                       forecast to maintain a relatively stable
to BC from other provinces will                                                                     Vancouver sales out of the BC total
                                       level compared to the past decade,
add to the population as well. Net                                                                  put upward pressure on the provincial
                                       although some increase is expected
interprovincial migration turned                                                                    average MLS® price.The CREA house
                                       in 2016 as homebuyers shift to less-
positive in 2014, adding more than                                                                  price index, a measure of price change
                                       expensive housing types as mortgage
10,000 people to the province's                                                                     designed to better reflect market
                                       interest rates rise. Multi-unit starts are
population, compared to net outflows                                                                price growth, was up 7.2 per cent
                                       forecast to range between 17,400 and
in 2012 and 2013.                                                                                   in March 2015 compared to March
                                       19,700 units in 2015. A similar range                        2014 in the GreaterVancouver board
Mortgage rates will continue to        is expected in 2016, with some upside                        area. According to this measure, price
be supportive of housing demand.       risk.                                                        gains in other BC large centers have
Consistent with the view of Canadian   Resales: MLS® sales are forecast                             been more moderate: up 2.7 per cent
economic forecasters, CMHC expects     to range from 82,300 to 93,100                               year-over-year inVictoria and up 2.6
interest rates to remain at or very    transactions in 2015 and between                             per cent year-over-year in Abbotsford-
close to current levels over the       78,700 to 91,800 transactions in 2016.                       Mission.
forecast horizon.                      Higher levels of turnover will reflect                       The MLS® average price is forecast to
                                       increased interprovincial migration
In Detail                                                                                           be between $573,700 and $627,500 in
                                       flows and higher employment levels                           2015, edging higher between $577,000
Single Starts: Single-detached home    in 2015. Gradually rising mortgage                           to $652,000 in 2016.
starts are expected to range from      interest rates in 2016 may shift home
9,000 to 10,200 units in 2015 and      sales to less expensive home types,
between 8,600 to 10,100 units in       dampening average price growth.


                                                                                                  Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation             7

                                                 Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Second Quarter 2015



Alberta                                    Figure 2
                                                                                   Alberta Starts (000s)
Overview                                     40                                                                       Singles     Multiples


Lower oil prices this year are               30
expected to considerably reduce
Alberta's real GDP growth from an            20
estimated 3.8 per cent in 2014 to
0.5 per cent in 2015. The consensus          10
forecast is for oil prices to rise in
2016, and in this scenario Alberta's          0
real GDP will increase by 1.8 per cent.                  2011           2012            2013            2014          2015(F)* 2016(F)*
The decline in oil prices has slowed       Source: CMHC                                                                                    (F): Forecast
Alberta's growth from being the
fastest-growing province in Canada in
2014 to one that is facing the risk of   *The point forecast for provincial total housing starts is 35,000 for 2015 and 31,800 for 2016. Economic
a recession. The economic downturn        uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts, which varies from 31,900-36,500 units for 2015 and
this year is not expected to be as        27,700-33,300 units for 2016.

severe as the last recession, which was to range between 16,400 and 18,500                            Resales: After increasing to 71,773
more broadly based and included the     units in 2015 and between 15,700 to                           units in 2014, MLS® sales are
impact of the global financial crisis.  18,300 units in 2016. Supply levels                           projected to range between 52,000
                                        in the resale market are expected to                          and 60,500 units in 2015 and 52,700
Oil and gas companies have been         remain elevated offering consumers                            to 61,500 units in 2016.The economic
cutting capital expenditures and        more options and creating more                                slowdown in Alberta has caused some
reducing demand for labour and          competition for new home sales.                               potential homebuyers to postpone
services. As a result, employment       With some companies in a downsizing                           their home purchase decision, with
growth in Alberta is projected to drop  mode, employment creation will be                             some waiting to see the impact on
from 2.4 per cent in 2014 to 0.3 per    slower than last year and will slow                           pricing while others are waiting for
cent in 2015 and then increase to 1.1   new home sales.                                               improved economic circumstances.
per cent in 2016. The unemployment                                                                    Since CMHC's last forecast, resale
rate in Alberta is projected to rise    Multiple Starts: The high level of                            demand has moved quickly towards
from an average of 4.7 per cent in      multi-unit construction witnessed in                          the lower end of the forecast range.
2014 to 5.7 per cent in 2015 and        2014 is projected to decline over the
2016. With reduced employment           forecast period. From 21,027 units                            Prices: In 2014, the average MLS®
opportunities, migration to Alberta is  in 2014, multi-unit starts are forecast                       sales price in Alberta increased by 5.2
expected to slow.                       to range between 15,500 and 18,000                            per cent to $400,590. The changing
                                        units in 2015 and 12,000 to 15,000                            economic environment has caused
Net migration to Alberta amounted       units in 2016. While economic and                             demand to decrease and move many
to 66,784 in 2014. Improving            demographic conditions that support                           of Alberta's housing markets into
relative economic performance in        housing demand have continued to                              conditions that favour the buyer. In
other jurisdictions and a decline       erode over the first quarter of 2015,                         2015, the elevated level of supply and
in temporary foreign workers will       multi-unit starts have increased during                       lower level of demand will ease MLS®
reduce inflows of migrants to Alberta.  the same period. However, this is                             price growth with more potential
Net migration is projected to decline   not expected to be sustained over                             for downside risk. Over the forecast
to 48,000 in 2015 and to 44,500 in      the balance of the year as ebbing                             period, the average MLS® sales
2016.                                   demand will slow pre-sales and                                price is expected to range between
                                        increase inventory. In addition, an                           $366,600 and $402,000 in 2015 and
In Detail                               elevated number of new listings in the                        between $360,400 and $409,500 in
Single Starts: After increasing by 6.1  resale market will compete with new                           2016.
per cent in 2014 to 19,563 units,       condominium sales, thus also slowing
single-detached starts are forecasted   the pace of new construction.

                                                                                                    Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation              8

                                                 Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Second Quarter 2015


Saskatchewan                              Figure 3

Overview                                                                Saskatchewan Starts (000s)
                                             12
                                                                                                                  Singles        Multiples
                                             10
Declining oil prices have increased
the downside risk to economic                  8

growth in Saskatchewan. As a result,           6
Saskatchewan's real GDP has been               4
revised lower from the previous
forecast to a growth rate of 1.4 per           2
cent in 2015 and 1.9 per cent in               0
2016. Notwithstanding, other key                        2011           2012             2013            2014        2015(F)* 2016(F)*
commodity prices such as potash           Source: CMHC                                                                                   (F): Forecast
appear to have bottomed, while
uranium prices are beginning to
increase from previous lows as the
announced restarting of some nuclear    *The point forecast for provincial total housing starts is 6,500 for 2015 and 6,500 for 2016. Economic uncertainty
                                        is reflected by the current range of forecasts, which varies from 5,940-6,730 units for 2015 and 5,860-6,870 units
plants in Japan in 2015 has provided    for 2016.
some optimism for Saskatchewan's
uranium industry. In addition,          from international migration.                                Resales: The current economic
agricultural exports are showing                                                                     environment of slower employment
growth and will help the economy        In Detail                                                    growth and lower net migration is
expand.                                                                                              expected to yield fewer provincial
                                        Single Starts: The effect of lower oil                       MLS® sales this year, with sales
Saskatchewan's moderating economy       prices on employment growth and                              expected to range between 11,300
will slow employment growth to 0.6      net migration will moderate housing                          and 13,100 units in 2015. Barring any
per cent in 2015 before stronger        demand in Saskatchewan over the                              additional economic shocks, provincial
economic growth in 2016 helps           next two years, as will an elevated                          MLS® sales are forecast to range
increase employment by 1.4 per          level of new home inventory. In the                          between 11,400 and 13,300 units in
cent. Saskatchewan's unemployment       absence of any significant reductions                        2016, supported by move-up buying
rate is projected to increase from      to inventory, single-detached starts                         and low mortgage rates.
3.8 per cent in 2014 to 4.6 per cent    are forecast to moderate and range
in 2015 and remain near this level      between 3,040 and 3,430 units in                             Prices: With supply expected to
at 4.5 per cent in 2016. While the      2015 and 3,060 to 3,570 units in 2016.                       continue rising faster than demand in
uncertainty caused by lower oil prices                                                               some major markets, Saskatchewan's
will hold back employment growth,       Multiple Starts: Notwithstanding                             average MLS® price is forecast
Saskatchewan's unemployment             higher demand for condominium                                to range between $282,000 and
rate will still represent the lowest    apartments in recent months in                               $304,500 in 2015. Buyers' market
provincial unemployment rate in         some local markets, Saskatchewan's                           conditions in both Regina and
Canada.                                 multi-unit starts are forecast to                            Saskatoon will help put downward
                                        range between 2,900 and 3,300                                pressure on the average price this
Net migration to Saskatchewan           units in 2015. Rising inventory and                          year. By 2016, improved local market
amounted to 11,603 in 2014. With        moderating economic fundamentals                             conditions are expected to help
economic growth slowing, the number     will result in fewer multi-unit projects                     increase price pressure and the
of people coming to Saskatchewan        being initiated. With builders                               average MLS® price is expected
is expected to decline. In 2015, net    seeking to meet new demand from                              to range between $279,000 and
migration is forecasted to decline      their inventory, multi-unit starts are                       $315,400.
to 10,200 people and remain close       expected to range between 2,800 and
to that level at 10,000 in 2016.The     3,300 units in 2016.
largest gains will continue to come



                                                                                                   Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation                9

                                                  Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Second Quarter 2015


Manitoba                                  Figure 4

Overview                                                                    Manitoba Starts (000s)
                                           8
                                                                                                                 Singles          Multiples
Manitoba's diversified economy will        7
help its real GDP grow by 2.4 per          6
cent in 2015 and 2.2 per cent in           5
2016, a growth rate that will exceed       4
the national average. Manitoba's           3
relatively small oil and gas industry      2
is being impacted by the oil shock;        1
however, a lower Canadian dollar           0
and a growing US economy will help                   2011            2012            2013              2014        2015(F)*        2016(F)*
to increase manufacturing and lift         Source: CMHC                                                                                    (F): Forecast
Manitoba's exports. Over the forecast
period, Manitoba's steady population
growth and rising wages will support     *The point forecast for provincial total housing starts is 6,000 for 2015 and 5,900 for 2016. Economic uncertainty
consumer spending.                       is reflected by the current range of forecasts, which varies from 5,540-6,230 units for 2015 and 5,360-6,170 units
                                         for 2016.
Employment growth is projected to
                                         outflow to Alberta.                                          This will signal builders to moderate
accelerate in 2015 with Manitoba's
                                                                                                      production over the forecast period.
expanding economy. Overall,
employment gains are projected to       In Detail
                                                                                                      Resales: Provincial sales of existing
improve as trade increases which,        Single Starts: After a pull back in 2014                     homes will see modest increases
in turn, will encourage business         production to allow inventories to                           over the next two years and are
expansion. Manitoba's employment         draw down, single-detached starts                            expected to range between 12,900
growth is projected to rise from         in Manitoba are expected to range                            and 14,700 transactions in 2015
0.1 per cent in 2014 to 1.4 per cent     between 3,040 and 3,430 units in 2015                        and between12,800 to 14,900 units
in 2015 and 1.3 per cent in 2016.        and 3,060 and 3,570 units in 2016.                           in 2016. Increases in employment,
Manitoba's unemployment rate is          Increases in employment and wages                            especially among 25 to 44 year olds, as
expected to remain low relative to       as well as elevated net migration will                       well as higher earnings and continued
the national average at 5.5 per cent in  contribute to new housing demand                             low interest rates will support
2015 and 5.4 per cent in 2016.           over the forecast period. However,                           demand in the resale market.
                                         significant increases in new home sales
Net migration to Manitoba amounted
                                         will be tempered by competition from                         Prices: Increases in the average
to 10,903 in 2014 as a result of
                                         an elevated number of listings in the                        residential MLS® price in Manitoba
a strong increase in international
                                         resale market.                                               will continue to moderate, and range
migration. Net migration is expected                                                                  between $258,600 and $276,400 in
to continue to be a key factor           Multiple Starts: Multi-unit starts will                      2015 and $260,100 and $287,100 in
supporting housing demand as             continue to come down from a peak                            2016. Modest increases in sales will
Manitoba is projected to have 9,100      level set in 2013 of 3,645 units and                         be met by a higher number of listings.
net migrants in 2015 and 9,300 in        are expected to range between 2,500                          This will result in a market that slightly
2016.This is expected to generate        and 2,800 units in 2015 and 2,300 to                         favours buyers, thus tempering upward
a relatively steady pace of new          2,600 units in 2016. As the elevated                         pressure on prices.
household formation. While Manitoba      number of units currently under
is expected to continue to experience    construction move to completion,
large inflows of international migrants, inventories of unabsorbed multi-units
interprovincial migration is projected   will rise in both the condominium
to remain negative, although lower       and purpose-built rental markets.
energy prices should ease the net




                                                                                                    Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation               10

                                                 Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Second Quarter 2015


Ontario                                    Figure 5

Overview                                                                       Ontario Starts (000s)
                                           90
                                           80                                                                       Singles       Multiples

The Ontario economy will gain              70
momentum over the forecast horizon         60
posting growth of 2.3 and 2.4 per cent     50
this year and next respectively. For       40
the first time in over a decade, growth    30
will exceed the national average.The       20
Ontario economy is expected to             10
transition to trade and investment           0
led growth. Non energy exports have                   2011             2012           2013               2014        2015(F)* 2016(F)*
gained momentum in the past year           Source: CMHC                                                                                    (F): Forecast
as evidenced by improving Ontario
manufacturing sales which are now
fast approaching pre-recession levels.    *The point forecast for provincial total housing starts is 61,700 for 2015 and 60,600 for 2016. Economic
This momentum in exports will be          uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts, which varies from 56,800-64,200 units for 2015 and
                                          54,500-63,600 units for 2016.
supported by a low Canadian dollar
and improving growth in the US -          In Detail                                                     Resales: Existing home sales will grow
Ontario's largest trading partner.An                                                                    and range between 192,800 and
improving trade picture will in turn      Single Starts: Single detached                                218,000 units in 2015 before easing in
lift business sentiment across the        construction will trend lower                                 the range of 182,900 to 213,400 units
province - paving the way for stronger    over the forecast horizon ranging                             in 2016.A growing stock of resale
business investment.                      between 20,100 to 22,700 units in                             housing, along with the resale market's
                                          2015 and 18,300 and 21,300 units                              price advantage will keep resale
Improving business sentiment              in 2016. Modest income growth,                                activity elevated.
will support more hiring enabling         the rising price gap between singles
employment growth to rise to 1.3          and condominiums and fewer sites                              Prices: Ontario home prices will grow
per cent and 1.7 per cent in 2015         available for new home construction                           at a slower rate over the forecast
and 2016 respectively from rates of       will dampen single starts.                                    period ranging between $424,000 and
growth below one per cent in recent                                                                     $464,200 in 2015 and $419,700 and
years.This pace of growth however         Multiple Starts: For the first time                           $487,700 in 2016.A slower pace of
will be below historical averages         in three years, multi-unit home                               price growth will be the norm over
owing to businesses relying more on       construction led by town homes                                the forecast horizon thanks to a more
capital spending to boost productivity    and apartments will post growth                               balanced housing market and a shift
and competitiveness. Ontario's            over the forecast horizon. Multi-unit                         in demand to less expensive resale
unemployment rate will trend lower        starts will range between 36,700 and                          housing.
and reach 6.7 and 6.5 per cent in 2015    41,500 units in 2015 and 36,200 to
and 2016 respectively.                    42,200 units in 2016.The continued
                                          rise in the prices of single-detached
Faster employment growth in               homes is encouraging consumers
western Canada has restrained             to consider the purchase of less
migratory inflows and population          expensive housing. Demand for
growth in Ontario in recent years.        rental accommodation has grown in
With Ontario's economy expected to        recent years encouraging increasing
outpace growth nationally over the        investment activity in the Ontario
forecast horizon, net inter-provincial    apartment market.Apartment
migration to Ontario will recover         ownership and rental demand will
slightly.Total net migration will rise    continue to be supported by price
from 89,600 in 2015 to 97,200 net         sensitive first time buyers and from a
migrants by 2016.                         growing pool of empty nesters aged
                                          55 to 64.


                                                                                                     Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation             11

                                                                Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Second Quarter 2015


Quebec                                                   Figure 6

Overview                                                                                        Quebec Starts (000s)
                                                          60
                                                                                                                                   Singles       Multiples
A gradual acceleration of Quebec's                        50
economic growth over the next two                         40
years will provide some stimulus to
housing demand in 2015 and 2016.                          30

During this period, resale markets                        20
will tighten somewhat, eventually                         10
translating into higher levels of
housing starts.The progressive                              0
                                                                     2011             2012            2013             2014          2015(F)*       2016(F)*
increase of demand will lead to price
growth of between 1.5 per cent                            Source: CMHC                                                                                   (F): Forecast

and 2.5 per cent during the forecast
horizon.
                                                        *The point forecast for provincial total housing starts is 35,900 for 2015 and 40,800 for 2016. Economic
In the next two years, economic                         uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts, which varies from 33,000-37,300 units for 2015 and
growth will stem from consumer                          36,700-42,800 units for 2016.

spending and net exports. Meanwhile,                    Quebec's rental markets.                                     market segment will contribute to
private investment and public                                                                                        an increase in multi-unit starts.As a
expenditure growth will be limited                      In Detail                                                    result, between 24,800 and 28,900
by the decline of the Canadian dollar                   Single Starts: In the next two years,                        units are forecast for 2016.
and by balanced budget objectives                       demand for new single-detached
respectively.Thus, following growth                                                                                  Resales: Sales of existing homes
                                                        homes will be influenced by
of 1.5 per cent in 2014, Quebec GDP                                                                                  recorded by Centris®9 should
                                                        moderate employment growth and
will increase within the 1.7 and 2.1 per                                                                             increase slightly this year and next,
                                                        the tightening of the resale market.
cent range in 2015 and within the 1.8                                                                                in line with employment growth.
                                                        Housing starts in this market
and 2.2 per cent range in 2016.The                                                                                   Between 68,000 and 75,000
                                                        segment will be situated within the                          transactions are thus expected this
impact on labour markets will be felt                   10,500 and 11,900 range in 2015                              year. Following this increase, slightly
more substantially at the end of 2015.                  and within the 12,000 and 14,000                             more robust labour markets will shift
As a result, employment will grow at a                  range in the following year. As the                          the forecast range next year.Thus,
rate of between 0.6 per cent and 1.2                    resale market tightens, demand for                           between 68,500 and 76,000 sales are
per cent in 2015 and between 1.0 per                    new single-detached homes will                               expected in 2016.
cent and 1.4 per cent in 2016. During                   progressively increase.
this period, the unemployment rate                                                                                   Prices: Despite relatively high supply
will rise slightly from the 7.7 per cent                Multiple Starts: After bouncing                              levels in certain market segments,
recorded in 2014.                                       back up last year, as a result of                            rising demand will lead to price
                                                        developments in large condominium                            growth during the forecast horizon.
The moderate employment recovery                        construction sites in downtown                               In this context, prices of resale homes
and the relative weakening of labour                    Montréal, multiple starts will descend                       will post growth ranging from -2.2 per
markets in most of western Canada                       back to a level that is more in line                         cent to 5.3 per cent in 2015, and from
will help retain workers in the                         with the demographic trends. In 2015,                        -3.7 per cent to 8.4 per cent in 2016.
province. Moreover, with the help of                    growth will be held back by relatively                       As a result, the average price recorded
rising immigration, total net migration                 high levels of supply from units under                       by Centris® will range from $260,000
this year will likely fall within the range             construction and competition from                            to 280,000 in 2015 and from $262,000
of 41,000 to 43,000 persons and                         the resale market. Starts of multiple                        to $295,000 in 2016.
within the range of 44,000 to 46,000                    units will lie within a range of 22,500
persons in 2016. Such levels will                       to 25,500 units this year. In 2016,
have a positive impact on demand in                     activity in the retirement home



9The Centris® system contains all the listings of Quebec real estate brokers.

                                                                                                                   Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation             12

                                                   Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Second Quarter 2015


New Brunswick                              Figure 7

Overview                                     4.0                          New Brunswick Starts (000s)
                                             3.5                                                                  Singles         Multiples

The outlook for 2015 and 2016                3.0
will be impacted by fiscal restraint.        2.5
Economic growth is expected to reach         2.0
0.5 per cent in 2015 and 0.7 cent in         1.5
2016.The main challenges preventing          1.0
a stronger provincial outlook include        0.5
the declining fiscal position of the         0.0
provincial government and a weaker                       2011            2012             2013            2014        2015(F)* 2016(F)*
outlook for commodity prices                Source: CMHC                                                                                     (F): Forecast
including lumber, pulp, potash and zinc.
Nevertheless, the natural resources
sector, which remains one of the main
economic drivers for growth, should      *The point forecast for provincial total housing starts is 2,000 for 2015 and 1,950 for 2016. Economic uncertainty
experience support from a weaker          is reflected by the current range of forecasts, which varies from 1,800-2,100 units for 2015 and 1,800-2,000 units
                                          for 2016.
Canadian dollar. Additional support
from this sector, however, will depend   conditions are not expected to                                Resales:The conditions in the existing
on the continuing improvement in         improve substantially to attract more                         home market continued to favour
global demand for commodities.           people.                                                       buyers in 2014. MLS® sales should
                                                                                                       decline modestly but there could
Labour market conditions                 In Detail                                                     be additional downside risk due to
are expected to exhibit some                                                                           weaker economic growth. As a result,
improvement as investment activity       Single Starts:The out-migration from
                                                                                                       MLS® sales are forecast to lie within a
begins to pick-up. Employment            the province's major centres to other
                                                                                                       range of 5,300 to 6,000 units in 2015
is projected to remain relatively        parts of Canada will become less
                                                                                                       and a similar range of 5,200 to 6,100
unchanged in 2015 and rise 0.7           problematic for economic growth
                                                                                                       units in 2016.
per cent in 2016.With the labour         as the outflow of migrants declines.
force expected to rise faster than       However moderate employment                                   Prices:The inventory of available
employment, the unemployment rate        growth of less than one per cent will                         homes is currently at historically high
will increase to 10.4 per cent in 2015   continue to impact the demand for                             levels in NB's large urban centres.This
and to 10.7 per cent in 2016.            homes over the forecast period. As a                          trend which is expected to remain
                                         result, singles will range from 1,040 to                      due to weaker demand will impact
The growth prospects for the             1,170 starts in 2015 and from 1,010                           price growth over the forecast period.
province also continue to be impacted    to 1,180 in 2016.                                             The MLS® average price is expected
by weak population growth and                                                                          to move down moderately in 2015
previous declines in net migration.      Multiple Starts: Stronger activity
                                                                                                       with prices within a range of $153,000
International migration is expected      focused on the rental market
                                                                                                       to $167, 400.With the possibility
to rise moderately in both 2015 and      since 2010 has resulted in a rise in
                                                                                                       of slower sales growth and higher
2016 following much higher levels        available units for rent throughout
                                                                                                       inventory levels in 2016, prices are
of growth in prior years. Negative       the province. Furthermore, rental
                                                                                                       expected to range from $148,000 to
interprovincial migration will continue  demand is expected to decline over
                                                                                                       $172,000.
to exist in both 2015 and 2016, mainly   the forecast period, due to moderate
due to an outflow of residents to        employment growth. As a result
western provinces. Net migration will    multiple starts are expected to decline
turn slightly positive in 2015 following to the range of 810 to 910 units for
three years of declines. However, it     2015 and 740 to 870 units by 2016.
will remain flat in 2016 as economic



                                                                                                    Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation                13

                                                   Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Second Quarter 2015


Nova Scotia                                 Figure 8

Overview                                                                      Nova Scotia Starts (000s)
                                             5.0
                                                                                                                      Singles        Multiples
Nova Scotia (NS) is expected to              4.5
record economic growth of 1.0 per            4.0
cent in 2015 and 1.1 per cent in 2016.       3.5
The economic outlook is expected to          3.0

improve in 2015 as actual ship building      2.5

activity begins this year. Recent            2.0

improvements in exports are expected         1.5

to continue due to the benefits of a         1.0

falling Canadian dollar and a recovering     0.5

U.S. economy.                                0.0
                                                        2011            2012              2013            2014        2015(F)*         2016(F)*
                                            Source: CMHC                                                                                    (F): Forecast
Labour market conditions weakened
                                         *The point forecast for provincial total housing starts is 3,100 for 2015 and 2,950 for 2016. Economic uncertainty
further in 2014 as both labour force      is reflected by the current range of forecasts, which varies from 2,900-3,200 units for 2015 and 2,700-3,100 units
and employment declined significantly.    for 2016.
Employment is forecast to recover         fundamentals remain stable, an aging                         employment growth, will shift sales
moderately in 2015 with a further         population base will continue to                             upward within the range of 7,700 to
increase of one per cent in 2016.         be focused on moving into rental                             8,900 units.
This growth in employment is largely      apartment units from single-detached
due to projected improvements in          homes. As a result, single starts will                       Prices:The slowdown in the MLS®
the private sector energy investment      decline and lie within a range of 1,150                      market in 2014 resulted in the average
activity over the forecast period. A      to 1,300 starts in 2015 and between                          price of an existing home declining
larger increase in labour force growth    1,080 to 1,260 starts in 2016.                               close to one per cent. In 2015, prices
compared to employment will result in                                                                  in the province will range from
the unemployment rate increasing to       Multiple Starts: Multi-unit starts in the                    $205,200 to $224,600. By 2016 the
9.1 per cent in 2015 and 9.3 per cent     province continued to record levels                          range in prices will be $200,700 to
in 2016.                                  above the ten-year average. For 2015                         $233,300 as inventory will continue to
                                          and 2016, the level of apartment unit                        pullback from recent historic levels.
Net migration will continue to be         construction in Halifax will rebound
positive over the forecast period as      and then pullback somewhat in
international migration will remain       2016. Demand for apartment units
positive, rising moderately in 2016.      will continue to be driven by an
Although interprovincial migration        aging population that is forecast to
will not turn positive in 2015 or 2016,   continue growing as a share of the
declines in inter-provincial migration    total population over the next several
are expected to stabilize at -500         years.As a result, the range in multiple
people per year. As a result, total net   starts will be 1,700 to 1,920 units in
migration is expected to turn in a        2015 and between 1,580 to 1,840
similar performance in 2015 as last       units in 2016.
year, moving up slightly in 2016.
                                          Resales: Following a more modest
In Detail                                 decline in 2014 and a small decrease
                                          in inventory levels, MLS® sales in NS
Single Starts:The forecast number         are forecast to remain weak within
of single-detached units is expected      a range of 7,700 to 8,700 units in
to slow in 2015 and remain close          2015. In 2016, some improvement
to levels observed in 2016. As            in economic conditions across the
the economic and demographic              province, including population and


                                                                                                     Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation               14

                                                 Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Second Quarter 2015


Prince Edward                             Figure 9
Island                                                              Prince Edward Island Starts (000s)
                                            1.0
                                                                                                                     Singles        Multiples
Overview                                    0.8

                                            0.6
The economy of Prince Edward Island
(PE) is forecast to grow by 0.5 per         0.4
cent in 2015 and increase by 0.7 per        0.2
cent in 2016. Slightly higher economic
growth will be the result of improved       0.0
                                                        2011            2012             2013              2014        2015(F)*        2016(F)*
performance from food processing
and manufacturing. A better outlook       Source: CMHC                                                                                   (F): Forecast

for tourism will also contribute
to growth as Canadians shift their
travel budgets back to spending
more in Atlantic Canada. Exports of      *The point forecast for provincial total housing starts is 500 for 2015 and 470 for 2016. Economic uncertainty is
aerospace, biosciences and seafood       reflected by the current range of forecasts, which varies from 460-520 units for 2015 and 420-490 units for 2016.

processing industries will be among
                                         from 250 to 290 in 2015 and 240 to
the strongest contributors to growth
                                         280 starts in 2016.
as a result of the weaker Canadian
dollar.                                  Multiple Starts: In the multi-unit
                                         segment of the market, construction
Employment is forecast to remain         will remain relatively stable as the
stable in 2015, followed by moderate     market continues to absorb recent
growth of 0.6 per cent in 2016.The       increases in inventory. Multiple starts
unemployment rate will increase to       are expected to range from 210 to
10.8 per cent in 2015 and 10.9 per       230 starts in 2015, with a subsequent
cent in 2016 as labour force growth      range of 180 to 210 starts in 2016.
will remain stronger than employment     As the vacancy rate is expected to
growth over the forecast period.         remain elevated over the forecast
                                         period, multiple starts will decline in
International immigration is forecast    2016.
to decline in 2015 and 2016 from
2014 levels. Overall, net migration      Resales: In the existing homes market,
is expected to remain stable and         shifting economic opportunities
positive over the forecast period as     outside of Charlottetown will
interprovincial migration outflows will  continue to weaken, resulting in softer
decline to -250 in 2015 and 2016.        demand.This will exert downward
                                         pressure on total sales. MLS® sales
In Detail                                will range from 1,200 to 1,300 sales in

Single Starts:Weaker demand is           2015 and from 1,100 to 1,300 in 2016.

expected to keep single-detached         Prices: Price growth is expected to
starts subdued over the forecast         remain weak due to slowing activity
period. This is a result of a slowdown   in the resale market, ranging from
in the growth of employment from         $153,400 to $168,000 in 2015.The
prior years, in addition to a continuing average price on the island is expected
shift in the evolving needs of an aging  to range in 2016 from $149,900 to
population away from single-detached     $174,200.
homes. As a result starts will range


                                                                                                    Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation               15

                                                   Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Second Quarter 2015


Newfoundland and                            Figure 10
Labrador                                                        Newfoundland and Labrador Starts (000s)
                                             4.0
                                                                                                                  Singles         Multiples
Overview                                     3.5
                                             3.0

Economic growth in Newfoundland              2.5
                                             2.0
and Labrador (NL) will remain                1.5
below the pace of the other Atlantic         1.0
provinces, with GDP expected                 0.5
to decline 0.3 per cent in 2015.             0.0
Economic growth is expected to                          2011            2012             2013            2014        2015(F)* 2016(F)*

increase modestly to 0.3 per cent            Source: CMHC                                                                                  (F): Forecast
in 2016.The province's economic
future will continue to be supported
by projects focused on both energy
and resource investment. However,        *The point forecast for provincial total housing starts is 1,950 for 2015 and 1,900 for 2016. Economic uncertainty
                                          is reflected by the current range of forecasts, which varies from 1,800-2,000 units for 2015 and 1,700-2,000 units
current commodity price weakness          for 2016.
does put some projects at risk.
                                          In Detail                                                    employment and GDP is expected
The province's labour market                                                                           to be modest, providing for a stable
conditions softened in 2014 for the       Single Starts: Demand for housing                            outlook for sales. As a result MLS®
second year in a row. Employment          will see continued declines over                             sales will range between 3,600 to
is forecast to decline over one per       the forecast period as a result of a                         4,100 units in 2015 and between
cent this year and reach a modest         moderate outlook for employment                              3,500 to 4,100 units in 2016.
growth of 0.6 per cent in 2016.           and a slowdown in income growth.

Labour force growth will remain close     Accordingly, the single-detached                             Prices: Prices are expected to remain

to zero in 2015, resulting in a rise in   housing market will decline to a range                       weak in 2015.A moderate recovery

the unemployment rate to 12.9 per         of 1,380 to 1,560 single starts this                         below the expected rate of inflation is

cent.The unemployment rate will rise      year and to a range of 1,300 to 1,510                        projected for 2016, as demand softens

further in 2016 as labour force growth    starts in 2016.                                              and inventory levels remain elevated.

outpaces the growth in employment.                                                                     Average MLS® house prices will be
                                          Multiple Starts: Multi-unit construction                     in the range of $269,800 to $295,400
Net migration is expected to turn         is expected to remain near last                              this year and $265,500 to $308,500 in
positive over the forecast period         year's level. New multi-unit rental                          2016.
due to an increase in interprovincial     construction projects are expected

migration in both 2015 and 2016 after     to remain active over the forecast

two years of declines. International      period. Semi-detached and row starts

immigration will also begin to            are not expected to rise significantly

contribute positively to population       as first-time buyer activity is expected

growth in 2015 and 2016.The               to slow. As a result, the range for

expectation is for a small addition of    multiple starts will be from 410 to 470

250 people in 2015 and 450 people         units in 2015 and from 410 to 480

in 2016.This is also tied to the need     units in 2016.

for additional expertise for new          Resales: Although wage growth
energy and resource investment            remains positive, there are
opportunities over the forecast           expectations for a decline in sales
period.                                   in 2015 as a result of the slowdown
                                          in employment and economic
                                          growth. For 2016 the growth in both
 Table 4: Multiple Housing Starts by Type (Units)

                                         2012           2013      2014 2015(F) 2016(F)
NFLD Semi-Detached                             88            36        51       45       40
          Row                                 121            96        99       80       80
          Apartment                         1,153           505       299      325      340
          Total                             1,362           637       449      450      460

PEI       Semi-Detached                        94            71        52       45       45
          Row                                 127            36        43       40       40
          Apartment                           333           247       124      140      120
          Total                               554           354       219      225      205

NS        Semi-Detached                       420           332       220      225      225
          Row                                 218           259       179      225      225
          Apartment                         1,626         1,689     1,302    1,400    1,300
          Total                             2,264         2,280     1,701    1,850    1,750

NB        Semi-Detached                       426           290       274      255      235
          Row                                 162           175        70       70       65
          Apartment                         1,014         1,002       740      550      525
          Total                             1,602         1,467     1,084      875      825

QUE       Semi-Detached                     3,866         2,835     3,083    3,100    3,500
          Row                               1,904         1,121     1,397    1,400    1,500
          Apartment                       25,538         20,658    23,103   20,000   22,500
          Total                           31,308         24,614    27,583   24,500   27,500

ONT       Semi-Detached                     3,397         3,116     2,742    2,540    2,350
          Row                             10,577          9,427     9,975   10,000   10,000
          Apartment                       37,201         25,272    22,726   27,360   27,850
          Total                           51,175         37,815    35,443   39,900   40,200

MAN       Semi-Detached                       346           348       294      271      251
          Row                                 538           773       652      457      423
          Apartment                         2,189         2,524     2,125    1,972    1,826
          Total                             3,073         3,645     3,071    2,700    2,500

SASK      Semi-Detached                       684           446       502      341      331
          Row                                 813         1,011       881      650      629
          Apartment                         3,300         2,649     3,067    2,209    2,140
          Total                             4,797         4,106     4,450    3,200    3,100

ALTA Semi-Detached                          3,886         3,997     4,780    2,371    3,175
          Row                               3,315         3,992     4,601    3,231    2,936
          Apartment                         8,702         9,591    11,646   11,598    8,289
          Total                           15,903         17,580    21,027   17,200   14,400

BC        Semi-Detached                     1,078         1,073     1,409    1,400    1,350
          Row                               3,201         3,103     3,551    3,400    3,450
          Apartment                       14,853         14,356    13,827   14,100   14,600
          Total                           19,132         18,532    18,787   18,900   19,400

CAN* Semi-Detached                        14,285         12,544    13,407   10,693   11,562

          Row                             20,976         19,993    21,448   19,553   19,348

          Apartment                       95,909         78,493    78,959   79,654   79,490

          Total                          131,170        111,030   113,814  109,900  110,400

Source: CMHC (F) Forecast. * Totals may not add due to rounding.


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation                              23

                                                         Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Second Quarter 2015



                                                    Table 7: Employment
                                                     (annual percentage change)

                            2010              2011              2012               2013               2014         2015(F)       2016(F)

NFLD                            3.6               4.1               3.8                0.8              -1.7            -1.3              0.6

PEI                             2.3               3.2               1.5                1.5              -0.1             0.1              0.6

NS                              0.4               0.4               1.0               -1.1              -1.1             0.4              1.0

NB                             -0.5              -0.7              -0.7                0.4              -0.2             0.1              0.7

QUE                             2.2               1.0               0.8                1.4               0.0             0.8              1.2

ONT                             1.6               1.8               0.7                1.8               0.8             1.3              1.7

MAN                             1.4               0.4               1.6                0.7               0.1             1.4              1.3

SASK                            1.0               0.9               2.4                3.1               1.0             0.6              1.4

ALTA                           -0.3               3.7               3.5                2.5               2.2             0.3              1.1

BC                              1.4               0.2               1.6                0.1               0.6             1.3              1.9


CAN*                            1.4               1.5               1.3                1.5               0.6             1.0              1.5


Source: Statistics Canada, (F) Forecast by CMHC.

National forecast reflects the April 2015 Consensus Forecast Report published by Consensus Economics.

*The point estimate for the forecast of national employment growth is 1.0 per cent for 2015 and 1.5 per cent for 2016.

Uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts, which varies from 0.3 per cent to 1.3 per cent for 2015

and from 0.5 per cent to 1.9 per cent for 2016.




                                                                                                     Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 24

                                                         Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Second Quarter 2015



                                           Table 8: Unemployment Rate
                                                                  (per cent)

                            2010              2011              2012               2013               2014         2015(F)       2016(F)

NFLD                          14.7              12.6              12.3               11.6               11.9           12.9            13.1

PEI                           11.4              11.0              11.2               11.6               10.6           10.8            10.9

NS                              9.6               9.0               9.1                9.1               8.9             9.1              9.3

NB                              9.2               9.5             10.2               10.3               10.0           10.4            10.7

QUE                             8.0               7.9               7.7                7.6               7.7             7.4              6.9

ONT                             8.7               7.9               7.9                7.6               7.3             6.7              6.5

MAN                             5.4               5.5               5.3                5.4               5.4             5.5              5.4

SASK                            5.2               4.9               4.8                4.1               3.8             4.6              4.5

ALTA                            6.6               5.4               4.6                4.6               4.7             5.7              5.7

BC                              7.6               7.5               6.8                6.6               6.1             5.8              6.2


CAN*                            8.1               7.5               7.3                7.1               6.9             6.8              6.6


Source: Statistics Canada, (F) Forecast by CMHC.

National forecast reflects the April 2015 Consensus Forecast Report published by Consensus Economics.

*The point estimate for the forecast of national unemployment rate is 6.8 per cent for 2015 and 6.6 per cent for 2016.

Uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts, which varies from 6.4 per cent to 7.3 per cent for 2015

and from 5.9 per cent to 8.1 per cent for 2016.




                                                                                                     Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 25

                                                         Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Second Quarter 2015



                                        Table 9: Gross Domestic Product
                                                     (annual percentage change)

                            2010              2011              2012               2013               2014         2015(F)       2016(F)

NFLD                            5.9               3.1              -4.5                7.2               0.4            -0.3              0.3

PEI                             2.2               1.6               1.0                2.0               0.5             0.5              0.7

NS                              3.0               0.7              -0.3                0.3               0.4             1.0              1.1

NB                              2.0               0.6              -0.4               -0.5               0.6             0.5              0.7

QUE                             2.3               2.0               1.5                1.0               1.5             1.9              2.0

ONT                             3.4               2.6               1.7                1.3               2.1             2.3              2.4

MAN                             2.6               2.1               3.3                2.2               2.0             2.4              2.2

SASK                            4.2               5.8               3.1                5.0               2.4             1.4              1.9

ALTA                            4.5               5.7               4.5                3.8               3.8             0.5              1.8

BC                              3.3               2.8               2.4                1.9               2.3             2.8              2.8


CAN*                            3.4               3.0               1.9                2.0               2.3             2.0              2.1


Source: Statistics Canada, (F) Forecast by CMHC, (E) CMHC estimate based on partial annual data.

National forecast reflects the April 2015 Consensus Forecast Report published by Consensus Economics.

*The point estimate for the forecast of national GDP growth is 2.0 per cent for 2015 and 2.1 per cent for 2016.

Uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts, which varies from 1.4 per cent to 2.6 per cent for 2015

and from 1.0 per cent to 2.6 per cent for 2016.




                                                                                                     Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 26

                                                          Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Second Quarter 2015



                                          Table 10: Total Net Migration *
                                                          (number of persons)

                            2010              2011              2012             2013           2014        2015(F)         2016(F)

NFLD                           840            1,686              2,142              636         -1,678             750          1,200

PEI                         2,541             1,560                509               66           869              250             250

NS                          3,701                819              -439          -1,130            981            1,000          1,250

NB                          2,781             1,223               -924          -1,300           -578              500                 0

QUE                      47,528              44,372            45,630          35,077          35,650          40,000          42,000

ONT                     114,911            100,361             84,856          94,074          73,289          89,600          97,200

MAN                      11,881              11,367            10,314            9,217         10,903            9,100          9,300

SASK                        9,395            11,608            15,226          13,106          11,603          10,200          10,000

ALTA                     21,677              45,587            78,838          86,922          66,784          48,000          44,500

BC                       39,597              31,559            26,749          33,625          43,932          43,900          43,300


CAN**                   254,852            250,142           262,901         270,293         241,755         243,300         249,000


Source: Statistics Canada, (F) Forecast by CMHC, (E) CMHC estimate based on partial annual data.



* Sum of interprovincial migration, international migration and non-permanent residents.

** Excludes territories.

Note: Canadian total may not add to the sum of the provinces due to rounding.




                                                                                                Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 27

                                                                       Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Second Quarter 2015




                                                                    Table 11a: Local Market Indicators

Census Metropolitan                       Total Housing         Single-       NHPI Annual         MLS®       MLS® Avg.              Rental Vac. Rate                  Average Rent

Area                                         Starts           Detached           % Change         Sales         Price          (3+ units, all bedrooms)          (3+ units, two bedrooms)

Victoria                          2014        1,315                551                -1.1        6,371        496,473                        1.5                           1,095
                               2015(F)        1,950                650                -0.7        6,850        508,000                        1.4                           1,115
                               2016(F)        1,850                650                -1.2        6,400        515,000                        1.4                           1,135

Vancouver*                        2014       19,212              4,374                -1.2       33,963        812,653                        1.0                           1,311
                               2015(F)       18,700              4,500                -1.0       38,000        850,000                        0.9                           1,337
                               2016(F)       19,200              4,600                -1.0       36,000        875,000                        1.0                           1,364

Abbotsford-Mission                2014         499                 251                n.a.        2,592        353,683                        3.1                            835
                               2015(F)         560                 230                n.a.        2,800        367,000                        3.0                            850
                               2016(F)         510                 200                n.a.        2,900        372,000                        2.7                            860

Kelowna                           2014        1,311                695                n.a.        4,886        425,996                        1.0                            980
                               2015(F)        1,500                680                n.a.        4,500        420,000                        1.5                           1,000
                               2016(F)        1,400                675                n.a.        4,700        435,000                        1.7                           1,020

Edmonton                          2014       13,872              6,832                0.1        19,857        362,657                        1.7                           1,227
                               2015(F)       13,800              6,400                0.7        17,500        359,000                        2.7                           1,265
                               2016(F)       11,500              6,000                1.4        17,700        362,000                        3.2                           1,295

Calgary                           2014       17,131              6,494                7.0        33,615        460,584                        1.4                           1,322
                               2015(F)       13,200              5,700                2.0        24,700        448,000                        3.0                           1,330
                               2016(F)       11,500              5,500                2.1        24,900        453,000                        3.2                           1,340

Saskatoon                         2014        3,531              1,577                2.5         5,996        341,061                        3.4                           1,091
                               2015(F)        3,000              1,425                1.1         5,500        338,700                        3.9                           1,115
                               2016(F)        2,975              1,425                1.2         5,560        343,800                        4.0                           1,135

Regina                            2014        2,223                707                1.5         3,731        314,899                        3.0                           1,079
                               2015(F)        1,975                625                0.5         3,500        304,000                        4.0                           1,090
                               2016(F)        1,945                600                0.9         3,535        307,000                        4.1                           1,105

Winnipeg                          2014        4,248              1,877                1.7        12,147        273,363                        2.5                           1,016
                               2015(F)        4,225              1,875                1.5        12,300        277,000                        2.8                           1,045
                               2016(F)        4,200              1,900                1.6        12,400        281,000                        3.0                           1,075

Thunder Bay                       2014         234                 168                0.4         1,443        227,262                        2.3                            888
                               2015(F)         230                 160                0.6         1,460        238,000                        2.4                            915
                               2016(F)         255                 165                0.6         1,450        245,000                        2.3                            940

Greater Sudbury /                 2014         271                 172                0.4         2,156        249,961                        4.2                            927
Grand Sudbury                  2015(F)         240                 150                0.6         2,050        245,200                        4.3                            950
                               2016(F)         230                 150                0.6         1,980        244,800                        4.6                            965

Windsor                           2014         806                 566                1.6         5,332        187,283                        4.3                            798
                               2015(F)         780                 525                1.0         5,700        192,500                        3.9                            815
                               2016(F)         785                 525                1.2         5,900        197,500                        3.6                            830

Sources: CMHC, Canadian Real Estate Association, Local Real Estate Boards, Statistics Canada.

*MLS sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area, which does not include Surrey, Langley,
      ®


White Rock, and North Delta.

n.a.: Data not available. (F) Forecast by CMHC.




                                                                                                                                    Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation               28

                                                                         Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Second Quarter 2015




                                                                    Table 11b: Local Market Indicators

Census Metropolitan                       Total Housing          Single-       NHPI Annual             MLS®    MLS® Avg.    Rental Vac. Rate           Average Rent
Area                                           Starts           Detached          % Change              Sales   Price    (3+ units, all bedrooms) (3+ units, two bedrooms)

London                            2014          1,983             1,116                1.9              8,751   255,453             2.9                       943
                               2015(F)          2,090              950                 1.8              8,850   262,500             2.7                       965
                               2016(F)          2,205              925                 1.8              9,000   268,500             2.5                       980

Kitchener-Cambridge-              2014          4,450              869                 0.7              6,646   337,806             2.3                       975
Waterloo                       2015(F)          2,925              925                 0.5              6,800   344,000             2.7                       990
                               2016(F)          2,875              875                 0.5              6,900   350,000             2.5                      1,010

St. Catharines-                   2014          1,479              896                 2.4              5,875   251,297             3.6                       892
Niagara*                       2015(F)          1,510              920                 1.7              6,050   260,800             3.2                       905
                               2016(F)          1,470              890                 2.0              6,000   268,800             3.0                       925

Hamilton                          2014          2,832             1,153                2.0             14,324   406,366             2.2                       959
                               2015(F)          2,660             1,130                1.8             14,000   422,500             2.4                       980
                               2016(F)          2,600             1,120                1.5             13,400   435,000             2.2                      1,000

Toronto                           2014         28,929             8,830                2.0             93,278   566,491             1.6                      1,251
                               2015(F)         32,400             7,700                1.5             93,400   595,000             1.7                      1,260
                               2016(F)         32,800             7,000                1.0             90,000   605,000             1.9                      1,265

Barrie                            2014          1,148              550                 n.a.             4,795   341,023             1.6                      1,118
                               2015(F)          1,100              550                 n.a.             4,900   358,000             1.8                      1,135
                               2016(F)          1,140              650                 n.a.             4,950   370,000             2.2                      1,160

Peterborough                      2014          232                203                 n.a.             2,578   280,685             2.9                       952
                               2015(F)          265                190                 n.a.             2,600   285,000             3.2                       965
                               2016(F)          260                180                 n.a.             2,550   288,000             3.0                       980

Brantford                         2014          416                278                 n.a.             2,075   270,776             2.4                       855
                               2015(F)          440                320                 n.a.             2,100   279,000             2.8                       870
                               2016(F)          400                290                 n.a.             2,000   286,000             2.5                       890

Guelph                            2014          1,064              204                 n.a.             3,295   358,583             1.2                       988
                               2015(F)          950                220                 n.a.             3,450   372,000             1.3                      1,000
                               2016(F)          975                225                 n.a.             3,500   379,000             1.5                      1,025

Oshawa**                          2014          1,671             1,141                n.a.            10,343   388,610             1.8                      1,010
                               2015(F)          2,125             1,180                n.a.            10,500   420,000             1.9                      1,030
                               2016(F)          1,875             1,100                n.a.            10,100   440,000             1.9                      1,055

Kingston                          2014          672                338                 n.a.             2,982   281,980             1.9                      1,070
                               2015(F)          810                275                 n.a.             3,000   284,500             2.0                      1,095
                               2016(F)          645                250                 n.a.             2,850   287,150             1.9                      1,115

Sources: CMHC, Canadian Real Estate Association, Local Real Estate Boards, Statistics Canada.

*MLS data for St. Catharines-Niagara is aggregated using total numbers of the area's three real estate boards.
      ®


**MLS numbers reflect all of Durham Region.
      ®


n.a.: Data not available. (F) Forecast by CMHC.




                                                                                                                            Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation        29

                                                                      Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Second Quarter 2015




                                                                     Table 11c: Local Market Indicators

Census Metropolitan                        Total Housing          Single-       NHPI Annual           MLS®        MLS® Avg.                 Rental Vac. Rate                      Average Rent
Area                                           Starts           Detached          % Change            Sales           Price            (3+ units, all bedrooms)              (3+ units, two bedrooms)

Ottawa*                            2014         5,762              1,775              0.4            14,094         363,161                            2.6                              1,132
                                2015(F)         5,010              1,550              2.0            14,000         366,900                            2.8                              1,140
                                2016(F)         5,210              1,560              1.5            13,900         370,000                            2.4                              1,160

Gatineau*                          2014         1,903               479               0.4             3,338         240,758                            6.5                               750
                                2015(F)         1,800               450               2.0             3,450         238,300                            6.3                               755
                                2016(F)         1,725               425               1.5             3,600         239,500                            6.1                               760

Montreal                           2014         18,672             2,677              0.4            35,764         331,081                            3.4                               739
                                2015(F)         16,100             2,500              0.3            36,600         338,000                            3.6                               750
                                2016(F)         16,600             2,600              0.5            37,600         345,500                            3.7                               760

Trois-Rivières                     2014           943               239              N/A              1,119         163,550                            5.3                               568
                                2015(F)           800               230              N/A              1,100         166,000                            5.1                               575
                                2016(F)           750               225              N/A              1,050         168,000                            5.0                               580

Sherbrooke                         2014         1,128               369              N/A              1,650         222,204                            5.4                               604
                                2015(F)         1,150               300              N/A              1,725         223,000                            5.6                               620
                                2016(F)         1,075               275              N/A              1,800         227,000                            5.6                               635

Québec                             2014         4,449               887               0.2             6,472         264,536                            3.1                               775
                                2015(F)         4,250               850               0.5             6,700         265,800                            3.5                               790
                                2016(F)         3,600               800               0.5             6,950         269,700                            3.8                               805

Saguenay                           2014           672               268              N/A              1,144         189,724                            4.2                               595

                                2015(F)           550               275              N/A              1,100         185,900                            4.5                               605
                                2016(F)           550               275              N/A              1,200         182,200                            4.5                               615

Saint John                         2014           236               127               0.0             1,591         169,222                            9.0                               714
                                2015(F)           240               120               0.5             1,500         168,500                            8.8                               725
                                2016(F)           280               130               0.5             1,450         168,000                            8.5                               735

Moncton                            2014           852               262               0.0             2,279         162,300                            8.7                               762
                                2015(F)           640               240               0.5             2,100         161,500                            9.5                               770
                                2016(F)           540               220               0.5             2,000         161,000                            9.2                               785

Halifax                            2014         1,757               511               0.3             4,692         274,004                            3.8                              1,005
                                2015(F)         2,025               525               1.5             4,800         279,000                            4.1                              1,025
                                2016(F)         1,850               550               1.5             4,800         280,500                            4.3                              1,045

St. John's                         2014         1,230               907               1.0             3,281         306,405                            4.6                               888
                                2015(F)         1,200               850               1.0             3,200         307,000                            4.5                               925
                                2016(F)         1,250               875               1.0             3,250         310,000                            4.5                               950

Charlottetown**                    2014           259               138               -1.0             574          204,213                            5.9                               836
                                2015(F)           275               135               0.5              535          202,500                            6.0                               845
                                2016(F)           245               130               0.5              510          203,000                            6.0                               855

ALL 35 LISTED                      2014       147,392             48,481              1.5            363,029        445,477                            2.8                               955
CENTRES                         2015(F)       141,475             45,305              1.0            357,320        463,414                            3.0                               969
                                2016(F)       137,270             43,960              0.9            352,785        468,387                            3.1                               983

Sources: CMHC, Canadian Real Estate Association, QFREB by the Centris system, Local Real Estate Boards, Statistics Canada.
                                                                         ®


*Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA), but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis.

**Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA. A CA has an urban core population of at least 10,000, while a CMA has a core population of at least 100,000.

n.a.: Data not available.  (F) Forecast by CMHC.




                                                                                                                                                Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation                  30

                                                           Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Second Quarter 2015




                                               Table 12: Major Housing Indicators
                                 (levels and quarter-to-quarter percentage change)

                                               2013Q2        2013Q3     2013Q4         2014Q1       2014Q2        2014Q3        2014Q4      2015Q1

New Housing

Building permits, units, thousands                   228.3        212.3      210.0         195.5          198.5        221.2          206.4    192.8
% change                                              26.9          -7.0       -1.1          -6.9            1.6        11.4            -6.7    -6.6

Housing starts, total, thousands                     188.2        190.9      197.0         175.6          196.8        195.6          185.2    176.6
% change                                               7.5           1.4        3.2         -10.9          12.1         -0.6            -5.3    -4.7

Housing starts, singles, thousands                    77.3         75.7        77.5          70.4          74.9         77.9            75.5    65.3
% change                                               0.4          -2.0        2.4          -9.2            6.4         4.0            -3.1   -13.5

Housing starts, multiples, thousands                 110.9        115.2      119.5         105.2          121.9        117.7          109.7    111.2
% change                                              13.0           3.8        3.7         -12.0          15.9         -3.5            -6.8     1.4

Housing completions, total,*                      49,362         47,812     49,292        38,797         45,014       47,979         49,638   54,824
% change                                              26.5          -3.1        3.1         -21.3          16.0          6.6             3.5    10.4

New Housing Price Index, 2007=100*                   109.7        110.2      110.3         110.9          111.4        111.8          112.2    112.3
% change                                               0.4           0.4        0.2           0.5            0.5         0.4             0.3     0.1



Existing Housing

MLS resales, units, thousands
    ®                                            454,236       473,600     462,500      447,836        483,736      502,024         491,008  472,592
% change                                               3.2           4.3       -2.3          -3.2            8.0         3.8            -2.2    -3.8

MLS average resale price, $
    ®                                            375,050       388,427     394,623      399,945        402,605      409,388         416,410  424,264
% change                                               1.7           3.6        1.6           1.3            0.7         1.7             1.7     1.9



Mortgage Market

1-year mortgage rate, per cent*                        3.0           3.1        3.1           3.1            3.1         3.1             3.1     3.0

5-year mortgage rate, per cent*                        5.1           5.3        5.3           5.2            4.8         4.8             4.8     4.8



Residential Investment**

Total, $2002 millions                            112,576       112,726     112,085      111,041        114,131      117,529         117,965      n.a
% change                                               1.6           0.1       -0.6          -0.9            2.8         3.0             0.4     n.a

New, $2002 millions                               51,372         49,876     50,508        49,952         50,336       51,524         52,328      n.a
% change                                               0.1          -2.9        1.3          -1.1            0.8         2.4             1.6     n.a

Alterations, $2002 millions                       43,568         43,712     43,412        43,804         44,844       45,580         45,916      n.a
% change                                               2.1           0.3       -0.7           0.9            2.4         1.6             0.7     n.a

Transfer costs, $2002 millions                    18,012         19,320     18,472        17,712         19,196       20,528         19,960      n.a
% change                                               4.5           7.3       -4.4          -4.1            8.4         6.9            -2.8     n.a

Deflator, 2002=100*                                  112.6        113.7      114.4         114.8          115.3        116.5          117.3      n.a
% change                                              -0.1           0.9        0.6           0.4            0.5         1.0             0.7     n.a


 Sources: CMHC, Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Canadian Real Estate Association.
 n.a.: Data not available.


 * All indicators are seasonally adjusted and annualized except the New Housing Price Index and the Residential Investment Deflator, which
 are only seasonally adjusted, and housing completions and the 1-year and 5-year mortgage rates, which are not adjusted or annualized.
 ** Residential Investment includes outlays for new permanent housing, conversion costs, cost of alterations and improvements,
 supplementary costs, and transfer costs.




                                                                                                          Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation     31

                                                   Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Second Quarter 2015



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